查干湖保护区气象要素演变规律及可预报性分析

Analysis of Evolution Rules and Predictability of Meteorological Elements of Chagan Lake National Nature Reserve

了解查干湖的气象演变规律对湖区保护具有十分重要的意义。选取乾安站为代表站．采用多尺度变化趋势分析、Mann—Kendall检验及加权的马尔可夫模型等方法，从线性变化趋势、突变点检测及气象要素可预报性等角度，分析了查干湖自然保护区1957～2011年共55年系列年平均气温、年降水量及年蒸发量等气象要素的统计特征和演变规律。结果表明，查干湖自然保护区年平均气温和年蒸发量系列具有较强的状态持续性，其基于统计方法具有较好的可预报性，而年降水量随机性较强，近年来查干湖呈现出干旱化的趋势，这将加剧区域水资源和生态环境的严峻形势。

Regional characteristics and evolution rules of meteorological elements are of great importance in planning and conservation of ecology and environment, especially for Chagan lake national nature reserve in Jilin province. This pa- per selects Qian＇an meteorological station in Chagan lake national nature reserve as the representative station and analyzes linear trend, mutation point and meteorological predictability of its historical meteorological data including annual average temperature, annual rainfall and annual evapotranspiration from 1957 to 2011 by using linear trend calculation, Mann- Kendall detection and weighted Markov model. The results indicate that interannual average temperature and interannual evaportranspiration of Chagan lake national nature reserve represent strong state persistence and satisfying predictability based on statistics, while interannual rainfall shows more randomicity. The climate of Chagan lake national nature reserve shows a trend of drought which may aggravate regional serious situation of water resources and eco-environment.