基于CASC2D模型的县北沟流域径流模拟研究

Simulation Study on Runoff in Xianbeigou Basin Based on CASC2D Model

基于物理基础的分布式水文模型中的CASC2D模型,对县北沟流域径流过程进行了模拟分析,以确定性系数、洪峰相对误差、径流深相对误差为评判标准。结果表明,采用CASC2D模型在县北沟流域的径流模拟效果良好,8场洪水中有6场洪水确定性系数在0.75以上,且均值为0.85。洪峰相对误差合格率为100%,径流深相对误差合格率为87.5%,只有1986062614这场洪水径流深相对误差不合格。可见,CASC2D模型在县北沟流域具有较好的适用性,能用于该流域径流过程的模拟。

CASC2D is a physically distributed hydrological model. In the paper, CASC2D is used to simulate and ana lyze the runoff process of Xianbeigou basin by taking the deterministic coefficient, relative error of flood peak and relative error of runoff depth as judgment criteria. The results show that the deterministic coefficient of six flood （we choose eight flood altogether） is over 0.75 and the mean value is 0.85; the relative error qualification rate of flood peak is 100%; the relative error qualification rate of runoff depth is 87. 5% because of the disqualification of the flood 1986062614. So, CASC2D has a good applicability in the simulation analysis of runoff process in Xianbeigou basin.