基于BP神经网络模型的水库移民后期扶持效果风险评价

Risk Assessment of Reservoir Migration Post-stage Support Policy Based on BP Neutral Network

对大中型水库移民后期扶持效果进行风险评价可掌握和了解后期扶持政策实施情况,以河南省淅川县水库搬迁安置移民为例,基于水库移民后期扶持监测评估调查数据,构建了移民风险评价指标体系,基于BP神经网络模型对该县后期扶持效果进行了风险评价。结果表明,淅川县大部分地区在后期扶持政策实施后移民的生产生活水平均得到了不同程度的恢复和提高,与监测评估综合评价结果相吻合,可见该模型用于水库移民后期扶持效果风险评价可行、有效。

The risk assessment for the late period policy supporting of large and medmm-slzed reservoirs migration can help us understanding the specific implementation of the policy. Taking reservoirs migrations of Xichuan county in Henan Province for an example, based on the data about monitoring and evaluation of late period policy supporting, this paper establishes risk assessment index system of reservoirs migration. And then the risk of late period supporting effect is evaluated based on the BP neutral network model. The results show that the living standard in most regions of Xichuan county is improved after the implementation of the late period policy supporting, which is consistent with monitoring and evaluation results. Thus, the proposed model is effective and feasible for risk assessment of later period policy supporting of reservoir migration.