结构偏差、滞后城市化与城乡收入差距

Structure Deviation,Lag of Urbanization and Urban-rural Income Disparity

笔者基于1978年～2011年数据构建VAR模型,对我国三次产业的结构偏差、滞后城市化与城乡收入差距进行了动态计量分析。结果表明,结构偏差的变动对滞后城市化的减小具有正效应;但滞后城市化对第一产业结构偏差没有明显的冲击效应,对第二产业的结构偏差有负效应,对第三产业的结构偏差有正效应。滞后城市化与城乡收入差距互为格兰杰原因,滞后城市化的变动对城乡收入差距的扩大在短期具有正效应,长期具有负效应;城乡收入差距的变动对滞后城市化的减小具有正效应,但城乡收入差距过大对滞后城市化的减小则会产生负效应。

This paper takes dynamic measurement to analyze the structure deviation, lag of urbanization and urban-rural income dispar- ity by constructing VAR model based on the data from 1978 to 2011. The results show that the structure deviation change has positive effect on the decrease of the lag of urbanization while the lag of urbanization has no obvious impact on the first industrial structure devi- ation, negative effect on the second industry structure deviation and positive effect on the third industry structure deviation. The lag of urbanization and urban-rural income disparity are Granger causes with each other. In the short term, the change of the lag of urbaniza- tion has positive effect on the expanding of urban-rural income disparity, but in the long term it has negative effect. The change of ur- ban-rural income disparity has positive effect on reducing the lag of urbanization, the urban-rural income disparity is, however, too much to reduce the lag of urbanization.