产业结构变动对国际收支失衡的影响——基于状态空间模型的分析

Impacts of Changes in Industrial Structure on the Imbalance of Payment——Based on the Analysis of State Space Model

笔者利用状态空间模型进行实证分析发现:中国产业结构总体不合理,对国际收支失衡起重要推动作用;与产业的非结构性变动相对比,产业的结构性变动对国际收支失衡的影响程度更高。在现阶段,应对本国汇率和资本管制政策进行必要的调整,以便充分发挥产业结构变动对国际收支失衡的调节作用。

By using the state space model, this paper conducts an empirical analysis and finds that China＇ s industry structure is irra- tional as a whole. The irrational structure of industry has played a very important role in promoting the imbalance of payment. Com- pared to the non - structural changes in industry, the structural changes in industry has influenced the imbalance of payment more greatly. At this stage, China should make necessary adjustments on foreign exchange policy and capital control policy to liberate the effect of the structural changes in industry on the imbalance of payment.