省际产业结构升级的异质性及影响因素——基于1998年～2010年28个省区的空间面板计量分析

Heterogeneity and Effective Factors of Provincial Industrial Structure Upgrading——A Spatial Panel-data Study on 28 Provinces from 1998～2010

笔者利用省域数据,首先检验了产业结构升级的空间相关性,其次,对省域产业结构的影响因素进行了空间计量回归。结果显示,投资需求和政府消费需求对产业结构升级的贡献不显著,并非影响产业结构升级的重要因素;外贸规模、个人消费需求和人力资本虽推动了产业结构升级,但贡献较小;技术水平和外商直接投资对产业结构升级也具有显著的正向影响,且贡献较大。

Using data （from 1998 to 2010） of 28 provinces and districts in China, this paper tests the spatial correlation of industrial structure upgrading, then analyzes the factors which affect the industrial structure based on spatial panel regression models. The results reveal that the impacts of investment demand and government consumption demand on industrial structure upgrading are not significant, and are not important factors. Trade, personal consumption demand and human capital do have some significant roles but the roles are small. Technology and FDI play an extremely important and positive role. Based on these conclusions, the industrial structure of neigh- boring industrial structure should be considered so as to promote provincial industrial structure upgrading.