我国经济增长与通货膨胀关系——基于1988—2011年的相关年度数据

The Relationship between Economic Growth and Inflation in China——Based on the Relative Annual Data from 1988-2011

以1988—2011年的中国统计年鉴等相关资料为数据资料来源,借助计量经济学中相关系数、平稳性检验等分析方法,以及格兰杰因果检验、误差修正模型的分析手段,对通货膨胀与经济增长之间的关系进行研究。结果表明,通货膨胀和经济增长之间存在较显著的单向因果关系,高经济增长必然会引起通货膨胀,且两者之间的时滞大约为一年。最后根据所研究的结果,得出结论并提出相应的政策建议。

The resource of data of the paper based on the related data,for example China statistical yearbook from the year 1988 to 2011.The paper studied the relationship between inflation and economic growth,using the following methods:related coefficent,unit root examination and Granger causal relation examination,error correction model,and so on.Through analysis,the conclusion is that there is the remarkable correlational dependence existed between inflation and economic growth.The high economic growth will inevitably lead to inflation,and the delay time between them is about one year.Finally,according to the research results I gain the conclusion and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.