房地产信贷宽松、交易成本对宏观经济的影响研究——基于世代交叠消费者的一般均衡模型

Macro-economy Effect of Housing Finance and Transaction Cost——A General Equilibrium Framework of Overlapping-generation Model

首先建立一个两部门一般均衡模型，假设存在风险厌恶的生命周期型消费者，面临异质性风险和加总的一般风险。随着经济的内生波动，房地产信贷宽松水平和交易成本水平会对价租比产生影响：当房地产交易成本上升信用收紧时，价租比会下降。采用1998—2012年间中国宏观经济数据和北京大学社会调查中心“家庭动态跟踪调查（CFPS）”数据，研究发现银行信用总量上升时，价租比同步上升；而当经济增长放缓时，金融紧缩、房价下降，从而得出结论：房价的波动其实质是投资品风险溢价的改变，这内生取决于房地产信用规模的周期性变动冲击；而降低交易成本、扩大信用规模会导致房地产泡沫和居民财产分配的不平等。

This paper focused on the residential housing market in China, study a two - sector general equilibri- um model of housing and non - housing production. The economy is populated by a overlapping generations of indi- viduals who face heterogenous risk and aggregate risk. Some key aspects of housing finance such as collateral con- straints and housing transactions costs are important for explaining the fluctuation of price - rent ratio. This paper is based on the data of China＇ s Family Public Survey （CFPS） from 1998 to 2012 of Chinese social sciences research center of Peking University. According the data, we find that the price - rent ratio increases as financial credit raise, and that housing price decrease as financial credit decline. We can conclude that the fluctuation of housing price is impacted by cyclical changes of housing finance, and the decline of transaction cost and the expanding housing cred- it wiU lead to housing price bubble and individual wealth inequality.