中国商品金融化分层与通货膨胀驱动机制

Goods Financialization and Inflation in China

在银行主导型的金融体系格局下,中国普通商品的利润积累越来越多地通过金融渠道获得、并与金融产品在资本聚集度等多方面表现出相似性和相关性的现象可以称为商品金融化。本文将资本轮动要素引入乘数加速数模型,基于内生经济周期理论阐释不同金融化程度商品的价格形成机制,并将因子分析与动态计量模型相结合,对不同金融化层次商品的价格变动对总体通货膨胀的驱动机制进行研究。结果表明:金融化程度越高的商品价格变动对通货膨胀的传导和影响持续时间越长,并且与通货膨胀的互动表现为双向性;中等金融化程度的商品对通货膨胀的传导效应集中于前2—3个季度内,且为单向;低金融化程度的商品价格变动对通货膨胀的驱动效应较弱,影响持续的时间相对较短。因此,区分商品金融化层次有助于提高宏观决策针对性。

The phenomenon that goods manifest a similar pattern in capital intensity and price volatility can be defined as financalization of goods in China. This paper introduces capital switching into the Multiplier-Accelerator model to explain the prlce-driving mechanism of goods at different levels of financialization. The paper combines factor analysis with VAR model and finds that the price changes of goods at different levels of financialization exhibit different effects on consumer price inflation. The prices of goods at high and medium financialization levels impose longer transmission impact on and have bilateral and unilateral causal relationships with consumer price inflation, respectively, while the prices of goods at low financial level have no causal relationship with consumer price inflation.