大都市区人口空间配置优化方法研究——以无锡市区为例

STUDY ON OPTIMIZATION METHOD OF POPULATION SPATIAL ALLOCATION IN METROPOLITAN AREAS——A CASE OF WUXI CITY

大都市区是经济社会发展水平较高的区域,也是人口最为密集的区域,随着人口规模急剧增加,资源消耗、环境容量占用、污染排放均呈现出上升的态势,同时也引致交通拥挤、空间局促、公共服务供给不均等一系列社会问题,也成为制约大都市区经济社会可持续发展的主要因素。为此,许多国家和地区实施人口总量控制和区域调控政策,目的在于协调人口布局与资源环境和经济发展间的关系。在借鉴地理学传统分区方法基础上,综合考虑自然生态、资源环境、经济社会发展等方面要素,从人居环境的约束性和适宜性两方面出发,构建人口空间布局适宜性分区评价的指标体系,探讨了单元划分、指标赋值和综合评价等方法,并采用修正矩阵向量模型计算各评价单元人口布局适宜性指数,在此基础上应用同比例关联法构建了人口总量指标空间配置优化模型。最后,以无锡市区为例对分区方法和空间配置优化模型进行检验,结果表明老城区人口密度过高,环境容量趋于饱和,需要疏解人口;外围的新城和开发区所在区域,人口密度较低,人口布局适宜性也较好,是未来人口集聚的重点区域;望虞河、直湖港沿线等生态敏感区、机场周边等地区不适合大规模人口布局,需要控制甚至迁出区内人口。在此基础上提出无锡市区人口空间布局优化方案,以期为制定差别化的人口引导政策提供科学依据。

Metropolitan areas are the regions with high level of socioeconomic development, as well as dense populations. However, along with the fast growth of population size, the amount of resource consumption and pollutant emission is constantly increasing, accompanied with declining environmental capacity. These have led to a series of social problems including traffic congestion, crowded space and inequality in public service delivery. These problems have become major constraints of regional sustainable development. In order to coordinate the relationship among economic development, environment and population allocation, many countries and areas have taken different measures, such as total population control and regional regulation policies. Based on the traditional geographic zoning approach, we explored suitability zoning method of spatial population allocation, with respect to constraint and suitability of human settlement. By considering various factors （such as environment, natural resources, and socioeconomic development）, we constructed an indicator system of suitability assessment of population allocation and explored the methods of unit division, indicator quantification and comprehensive assessment. The indices of suitability assessment of population allocation were calculated from a modified matrix vector model. Based on the indices, a spatial model of population allocation is constructed. Using Wuxi City as a case, the result from the optimization model showed that： the old town, which has been overpopulated and presented supersaturated environmental capacity, need to reduce its population; while the new city and development zones, are expected to be population centers in the future, due to the low population density and proper population spatial allocation. Population controlor even emigration is to be implemented in the areas along the Wangyu and Zhihu River and those in proximity to the airport, because of high ecological sensitivity and low suitability. The optimization schemeprovides an important scientific basis for coordinating among industrial development, regional population allocation and water environment protection, and for implementation of distinct population policies.