摘要
鉴于供应链成员对待缺货风险的态度会直接影响其订货决策,进而对牛鞭效应产生影响。为探讨此种影响,利用系统动力学仿真软件Vensim PLE,在传统二阶段供应链模型的基础上,引入缺货风险规避参数建立新的系统动力学模型,对供应商和零售商的不同风险态度组合进行了系统仿真。研究表明:(1)参与者对待缺货风险的态度会对牛鞭效应产生影响,并且随着风险规避参数的增加,牛鞭效应更加严重;(2)上游供应链的缺货规避态度比下游供应链的缺货规避态度更能强化牛鞭效应。
In this paper, we used the software Vensim PLE developed on the basis of systems dynamics to explore the influence of the supply chain member＇s attitude toward the shortage risk upon its ordering decision, introduced the shortage risk aversion parameter to build a new systems dynamic model to simulate the different combinations of the attitudes of the suppliers and the retailers, and at the end, we reached some useful and insightful conclusions.
出处
《物流技术》
北大核心
2013年第11期180-183,共4页
Logistics Technology
关键词
系统动力学
牛鞭效应
风险规避
供应链
systems dynamics
bullwhip effect
risk aversion
supply chain
