美国利率政策对中国利率政策的影响研究

Study on the Impact of the U.S.Interest Rate Policy on Chinses Interest Rate Policy

通过文献回顾，以利率平价理论为基础，考虑中国资本项目渐进开放的现实因素，选择2007年10月～2013年6月的月度数据为研究样本，建立误差修正模型，研究了美国利率政策调整对中国利率政策变动的影响。结果表明，中国与美国两国间利率政策有长期依存性。美国利率政策的调整会引起中国利率发生同向联动调整。资本流动限制对中国国内利率有显著影响，而美元预期升值率的影响效应在一般统计水平上不显著。短期因素的冲击虽然会对中国利率产生同向的冲击，但在误差反向修正机制作用下，会较快地恢复长期均衡态势。最后，提出了相关政策建议。

Based on the interest rate parity theory and literature review, this paper studies the impact of adjustment of the U. S. interest rate policy on Chinese interest rate policy changes by considering the gradual opening up of China＇s capital account and selecting monthly data in 2007. 10-2013.6as the sample and establishing error correction model. The results show： there is a long-term dependency between Chineseinterest rate policy and the United States interest rate policy. The adjustment of the U.S. interest rate policy will makeChineseinterest rate policy adjust in the same direction. Restrictions on capital flows have a significant effect on Chinese interest rate while the expectation of the USD appreciation has no significant influence statistically. Short-term factors has impact on Chinese interest rate in the same direction. The error correction coefficient is negative and it is in line with reverse adjustment mechanism. Finally, some relevant policy reeommendations are put forward.