基于不同指标类型的公司财务危机征兆和预测比较研究

Compactive Study of Corporations' Financial Distress Symptoms and Prediction Based on Different Type of Variables

选取2002～2011年沪深两市制造业上市公司作为样本,以息后经营净现金流为负做标志界定财务危机公司,通过对危机公司和正常公司进行比较,发现危机公司在危机发生前与正常公司相比,出现了经营现金流产生能力和盈利能力偏低、短期借款和关联方资金占用偏高等财务征兆,在治理结构方面也存在第一大股东持股比例相对较低、独立董事所占比例较高、高管激励不足等问题。财务指标和治理结构指标具有各自的优缺点,财务指标预测模型的判别精度较高,治理结构预测模型的稳定性较好,二者的判别结果具有较强的互补性,同时使用可以使误判的概率降低。

This article selects listed manufacturing corporation as samples, defining those companies whose operating net cash flow after interst expense is negative as financially distressed companies. Through the comparison of distressed companies and healthy companies, we find distressed companies have lower ability of operating cash flow generation and profitability higher short-term loan and funds occupation of related parties and other financial symptoms. In governance structure, distressed companies have more balanced ownership structure, more independent directors＇ proportion, lower executive incentive and other symptoms. Due to respective characteristics of financial indicators and corporate governance indicators, the distress prediction model with only financial variables has a relatively high predicting accuray, and the distress prediction model with only governance variables is more stable.