工资刚性下美国征收碳关税对中国的减排与经济影响

Impact of the US CarbonTariffon China's Emission Reduction and Economic Development Under Wage Rigidity

美国制定的《清洁能源安全法案》计划在2020年对未实施碳减排限额国家的高排放出口产品征收碳关税。本文基于全球贸易分析-能源模型(GTAP-E),利用递归动态方法,在考虑短期工资刚性,经济处在非完全均衡状态(即存在失业)下,分析预测美国在2020年实施碳关税对中国碳排放与经济的影响。研究结果表明,相比于已有研究普遍采用的充分就业假设,在工资刚性条件下,美国征收碳关税将对中国经济造成更为显著的负面影响,并导致较严重的失业问题。隐含碳含量较高的部门及其上属关联部门的产出下降幅度更显著,而隐含碳含量较低的部门产出增幅减缓,贸易平衡将显著低于充分就业闭合下的情景;此外,美国征收碳关税的减排效果也将进一步降低。

Due to the potential loss of competitive advantage and carbon leakage, the USA issued the ＂Clean Energy Security Act＂ plan that aims to impose carbon tariffs on high embodied emission exports from countries that do not commit binding greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in 2020. Based on the Global Trade Analysis Project- Energy Model （GTAP-E）, we consider short-term wage rigidity when the economy is in a non-perfect equilibrium state （namely, the existence of unemployment） and then adopt the recursive dynamic method to analyze the impact of US carbon tariffs on Chinese carbon emissions and economy. Compared to previous literature that uses full employment assumptions, our simulation results show that under short-term wage rigidity, the US carbon tariffs would have significant negative macroeconomic impacts for China and lead to serious unemployment. If the US imposes a carbon tariff rate at 60 dollars/ton of carbon, China＇ s GDP would decrease by 2.06% and social welfare would decline by 68.9 billion, relatively higher than that of full employment scenario. Furthermore, under wage rigidity assumptions, the US carbon tariff would also lead to a rise in unemployment. As for sector output, the output of high embodied carbon sectors and their upstream related sectors would decline severely. Due to the shrink of high embodied carbon sectors, labor would flow and transmit to other sectors, which contributes to the enlargement of output and trade in low carbon sectors. However, under the wage rigidity assumption, this kind of labor transfer effect would decline because of the existence of unemployment in different sectors. Therefore, the output growth of low carbon embodied sectors would also slow down and the trade balance would be significantly lower than the scenario of full employment closure. In addition, the emission reduction effect of US carbon tariff would also further decrease under wage rigidity.