判别高新技术企业技术创新投资决策错误的风险准则

The Risk Criteria for Discriminating Technology Innovation Investment Decision Errors of High-tech Enterprises

高新技术企业的技术创新是一种高风险活动,高风险意味着面临获得高风险收益或遭受高风险损失的可能。因此,正确的技术创新投资决策有利于实现收益的最大化。通过对企业技术创新投资风险收益规律的分析发现,企业技术创新投资客观上存在最佳风险度和临界风险度,认为对于理性的技术创新投资决策者而言,应根据企业自身的风险承担能力和经营战略,确定包括最佳风险度在内的风险容忍区间,作为判别技术创新投资决策错误的风险准则,并通过消错理论中的错误函数度量投资决策错误的程度,以便采取相应的补救措施。最后通过错误投资决策的实例分析,说明了该风险准则的科学性和合理性。

The technological innovation of high-tech enterprises is a high-risk activity. High-risk means the probability of obtaining high risk gain or suffering large risk loss. Therefore, the correct decision on technological innovation investment is help- ful to maximize the investment income. Through an analysis of the law on technological innovation investment risk-benefit, it is found that an optimal degree of risk and a critical degree of risk exist in the technological innovation investment objectives. For rational decision makers, a risk tolerance interval including the optimal degree of risk should be determined, based on the enterprise＇s own risk tolerance and business strategy, as a the risk criteria for discriminating technology innovation investment decision errors, and an error function should be created to measure the degree of the investment decision error based on the error- eliminating theory in order to take appropriate remedial measures. Finally, a wrong decision example is analyzed to illustrate the risk criteria is scientific and rational.