河南省黄河中下游地区洪灾损失评估与预测

Loss Assessment and Prediction of Flood Disaster in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yellow River in Henan Province

以河南省黄河中下游地区为研究区,利用GIS技术和社会经济数据的空间展布方法,构建洪灾损失快速评估模型,基于该模型不仅进行了1996年型洪水直接经济损失的评估,而且对2015年发生1996年型洪水进行洪灾损失预测和灾情等级区划。结果表明:①以1996年型洪水为例,运用此模型进行的评估结果与实际灾情接近,评估精度较高。②通过预测2015年发生1996年型洪水的损失结果来看,直接经济损失将是1996年的4倍。1996年评估和2015年预测的损失类型主要都以农业、农村房屋和家庭财产为主。③通过计算基数对灾情进行了等级区划,从洪灾损失对国民经济的影响来看,济源、偃师、巩义、荥阳、郑州、中牟、开封、兰考为轻灾区;武陟、封丘、濮阳、范县为中灾区;孟津、孟州、温县、长垣为重灾区;原阳和台前为特重灾区。从整体上看,黄河滩区内北岸地区比南岸地区灾情严重。

Taking the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River as study area,applying for GIS technique and the spatial distribution method about socio-economic data,a valid and rapid model for flood disaster losses assessment is designed. Based on the model,not only direct economic losses about the flood of 1996 type are assessed, flood disaster losses in 2015,which is of the flood of 1996 type are predicted. Results show that： ① Taking flood of 1996 type as an example,and by using this model to assess the flood disaster losses,the assessed results are close to the actual disaster situation. This assessment model is proved to be highly precise. ② By predicting flood disaster losses in 2015,direct economic losses are four times than the assessed result in 1996. Loss types of both assessed results in 1996 and predicted results in 2015 are mainly agriculture,rural houses and family property. ③ Grade division of disaster situation is predicted by calculating base. From the influences on flood disaster losses to local national economy,Jiyuan city,Yanshi city,Gongyi city,Xingyang city,Zhengzhou city,Zhongmu county, Kaifeng city and Lankao county are light disaster areas. Wuzhi county,Fengqiu county,Puyang county,Fanxian county are middle disaster areas. Mengjing county,Mengzhou city,Wenxian county,Changyuan county are heavy disaster areas. Yuanyang and Taiqian counties are extremely heavy disaster areas. As a whole,the disaster situations are more serious in north bank area than in south bank area in the Yellow River beach.