CEPA下香港与内地经济耦合度与效应分析

An Analysis on the Economic Coupling Degree and Effect between Hong Kong and China's Mainland under CEPA

作者首先构建一个关于香港和内地经济耦合的制度博弈理论逻辑模型。接着,收集香港与内地的贸易、投资、人员和技术往来等四个方面的数据,构建耦合指数进行摸拟,得出两地经济耦合度增长迅速的结论。然后,客观评价了CEPA对香港和内地产生的正面与负面效应,并就如何加强香港与内地的经济耦合提出四点建议:一是增强两地政府、行业协会和企业的沟通与协作;二是减少两地经贸流动的制度性障碍,加速两地要素双向流动;三是积极探索两地合作新模式;四是增强广东和上海先行先试的力度,推动港粤沪合作走向新阶段。

This paper builds a system-game theoretical logic model of economic coupling between Hong Kong and Chi-na's mainland. With 14 indicators established from trade, investment, personal exchanges and technical ex-changes, the paper builds a coupling index of the two areas, and it proves that the economic coupling has a rapid increase through simulation. Then it objectively evaluates the positive and negative effects of CEPA to Hong Kong and the mainland. Finally, five suggestions are made to strengthen the economic coupling between the two areas: strengthening the communication and cooperation of the two areas ' governments, guilds and enterprises; reducing the two areas' flow institutional barriers of economy and trade and promote their bidirectional flow; actively exploring a new cooperation mode of the two areas; enhancing the efforts of the exploratory leading role of Guangdong and Shanghai, and promoting Hong Kong, Guangdong and Shanghai cooperation to a new stage, so as to speed up and improve the construction of port infrastructures.