银行股对准备金率调整的市场反应——对银行是否承担准备金税的回答

Market Reaction of Bank Stocks to Reserve Rate Adjustment——An Answer to Whether Banks Are Liable for Reserve Requirement Tax

利用事件研究法,采用浮动窗口,将商业银行分为大型和中小型两大类,研究了金融危机后这两类银行股票收益率对准备金率调整的市场反应,并检验了预期的作用、准备金率上调与下调的不对称性反应,据此判断银行是否承担了准备金税。研究表明:两类银行股票收益率的市场反应是显著的,商业银行承担了准备金税,而且大型商业银行更为显著;不仅如此,市场还能提前预期到准备金率调整政策,上调政策对银行的影响大于下调政策。

By applying the event-study method and floating windows, this study classifies commercial banks into large-scale ones and small and medium-sized ones. By analyzing the market reaction of bank stock returns to reserve rate adjustment, the market expectations and the asymmetric effects of reserve rate increasing and decreasing after the financial crisis, whether commercial banks are liable for reserve requirement tax is explored. The findings indicate that reserve requirement tax is assumed by bank stockholders, particularly to large-scale commercial banks. Moreover, the market could predict the coming of reserve rate adjustment policies, and to commercial banks an increase in reserve rate has more significant impact than a decrease. Finally, some policy implications are put forward.