基于多循环Hubbert模型对全球石油峰值的预测

Global peak oil prediction by application of multi-cycle Hubbert model

文章应用多循环Hubbert模型对全球石油峰值进行预测,并对比单循环Hubbert模型预测结果,以及大量作者及机构对石油峰值预测研究,证实全球的石油峰值将推迟至2037年左右发生,峰值产量也将超过42Gb(109桶)。与单循环Hubbert模型相比,多循环Hubbert产量曲线峰值之后的产量递减率高于峰值前产量增长率,更符合历史产量数据的波动,也一定程度上克服了其夸大未来峰值产量的缺陷,因此在全球石油峰值的预测中更具价值。

This paper applies multi cycle Hubbert model to estimate global peak oil production. By comparing the single-cycle Hubbert prediction results,as well as a large number of authors and institutions estimate, we confirm the global oil peak time will be delayed around 2037, and peak production will be more than 42Gb. Compared with the single-cycle Hubbert model,the decline rate of post peak time in accordance with multi cycle Hubbert model is more sharply than the growth rate before the peak,in line with historical oil production data fluctuations,but also to a certain extent overcome exaggerated future peak production, so multi cycle Hubbert model is more valuable than single-cycle model.