摘要
在对证据理论的建模、推理、决策到评估各层面最新进展梳理的基础上,针对证据理论现有研究中存在的一些问题、混淆和误解,结合仿真算例进行了分析和探讨,包括证据理论与概率论的关系,证据冲突与反直观结果的关系,证据距离的定义以及证据理论的评价准则问题等.最后对证据理论的发展方向进行了展望.该研究旨在为人们正确理解和使用证据理论提供参考和借鉴作用.
Based on the review of the development and recent advances in model, reasoning, decision and evaluation in evidence theory, some analyses and discussions on some problems, confusions and misunderstandings in evidence theory are provided together with some related numerical examples. The relations between evidence theory and probability theory, the evidence conflict and related counter-intuitive results, some definitions on distance of evidence and the evaluation criteria in evidence theory are covered in this paper. The future developing trends of evidence theory are also analyzed. This research aims to provide reference for the correctly understanding and using of evidence theory.
出处
《控制与决策》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期1-11,共11页
Control and Decision
基金
国家973计划项目(2013CB329405)
国家自然科学基金项目(61104214
61203222)
国家自然科学基金创新群体基金项目(61221063)
教育部博士点基金项目(20120201120036)
中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(201104670)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(xjj2012104)
陕西省科技计划项目(2013KJXX-46)
关键词
证据理论
反直观
冲突
证据距离
概率论
evidence theory
counter-intuitive
conflict
distance of evidence
probability theory
