什么因素在多大程度上导致农村金融排斥难题——基于2010年中部六省667县(区)数据的实证分析

The Factors and Extent that have Resulted in the Rural Financial Exclusion Problem: An Empirical Research Based on the Data of 667 Counties from Six Central Provinces of China

本文基于2010年中部六省667县(区)的经济数据,从理论与实证的角度,分析了什么因素在多大程度上导致农村金融排斥难题。文章发现,县域经济发展水平与农村金融机构多寡呈显著正相关关系,并且基于回归方程的分解分析证实,县域经济水平差距大约解释了农村金融排斥差距的33%。这一结论对商业类金融机构和农村类金融机构在县(区)的布局设点同样适用。城镇化因素在破解农村金融排斥问题方面具有不可替代的作用,控制住其他变量的条件下,如果各县(区)城镇化水平均等,那么农村金融排斥的差距大约会缩小20%。建设更加富有竞争性的农村金融市场以及设法实现农民收入更快增长,也是破解农村金融排斥难题的关键。在未来打政策组合拳时,既要有轻重缓急,又要做到因地制宜。

Based on the economic data of 667 counties （districts） of six central provinces in 2010, this thesis analyzes the factors and the extent that have resulted in the rural financial exclusion problem from the theoretical and empirical perspective. We find that there is a significant positive correlation between the county economic development and rural financial institutions. What＇ s more, the level of county economic gap explains about 33% of the gap in the rural financial exclusion by the decomposition of the regression equation analysis. This conclusion also applies to business class financial institutions and rural financial institutions which set up distribution points in the county （district）. Urbanization factors have been shown to play an irreplaceable role in cracking the problem of rural financial exclusion. Under the premise of controlling other variables, if the urbanization levels of each county （district） are equal, then the gap of the rural financial repression will shrink about 20%. It is also the key to crack the problem of rural financial exclusion, to build a more competitive rural financial market, and to try to achieve faster growth of farmers＇ income. For the policy mix boxing fight in the future, it requires distinguishing the priorities as well as taking the measure to local conditions.