补贴政策与排放限制下陕西可再生能源发展预测——基于MARKAL模型的情景分析

Forecasting Renewable Energy Development of Shaanxi Province under Subsidy Policies and Emission Limit——A Scenario Analysis Based on MARKAL

运用MARKAL能源系统模型对陕西省2010—2030年的能源生产、主要大气污染物及二氧化碳排放进行模拟后发现:(1)污染物排放限制和可再生能源生产补贴政策在促进可再生能源生产的同时会减少煤和石油的生产速度;(2)可再生能源生产补贴政策对天然气、核电和水电的生产影响不大;(3)污染物排放限制和可再生能源生产补贴政策会"反转"主要污染物的排放趋势;(4)污染物排放限制和可再生能源生产补贴政策均能减少陕西省未来的二氧化碳排放,但排放限制的减排作用要强于补贴政策。

This paper used IEA's energy system model MARKAL to predict energy production, CO 2 and emissions of main atmospheric pollutants such as SO 2 、CO、NO x in Shaanxi province from 2010 to 2030. After establishing kinds of simula- tion scenarios about production subsidies for re- newable energy and emission limit of main atmos- pheric pollutants,we analyzed and compared dif- ferent simulation results under these scenarios. Some important conclusions were achieved. First, emission limit and subsidy policies can not only promote production of renewable energy but also reduce the rate of production of coal and oil. Sec- ond,subsidy policies have limit impacts on natural gas,nuclear power and hydropower. Third,emis- sion limit and subsidy policies will reverse the trends of main pollutant emissions. Four,emission limit of main atmospheric was more powerful in CO 2 reduction than subsidy policies.