基于中国可持续发展模型的谷物供需研究

Demand and Supply of Chinese Cereal Based on T21 China Model

为研究居民营养水平提高对我国谷物供需安全的影响,构建了系统动力学模型进行定量研究。在基准情景下对我国在1990-2050年的人口、土地、农业用水、谷物产量、谷物需求进行了基于事实型数据的分析和预测,并通过情景分析方法,构建绿色情景和灰色情景,并与基准情景进行了比较。研究的结果表明:(1)人口政策需要慎重考虑,应加强农业科技投入和科研成果转化;(2)谷物生产端与需求端的差距将长期存在,饲料用谷物增长迅速;(3)我国正处于收入增长引起的饮食结构转型期,需要得到积极引导,合理膳食。

By using system dynamic models, a quantitative study on how dietary adjustment effects demand and supply of Chinese cereal is conducted, which forecasts the population, land, irrigated water use, cereal yield and cereal demand in China during 1990 to 2050 under base scenario. The methodology of scenario analysis is used to illustrate the differ- ence of base scenario and green and grey scenario under different policies. The result shows ： （ 1 ） population polices should be seriously taken, and agriculture technology improvement should be strengthen; （2） the gap between cereal supply and demand will be a long standing problem, and demand of cereal for feed will increase dramatically in the fu- ture;（3） a proper diet should be reasonable guide to ensure peopleg health and reduce the gap between cereal demand and supply which lead to the safety of national strategy.