摘要
运用中国乘用车市场的加总数据和随机系数离散选择(BLP)等模型,在对汽车市场进行需求估计和供给分析的基础上,实证模拟测算了各种可能的兼并重组行为的福利效应,试图对新一轮汽车产业兼并重组政策做些评估。结果发现:(1)目前乘用车市场产品(车型)相似程度太高;(2)相对于其它模型而言,BLP模型能够更精确地刻画"产品间相似程度越高,替代关系越大"这一事实;(3)兼并重组行为发生后,兼并重组汽车企业和市场上其它汽车企业的利润水平都会出现上升;消费者福利将遭受较大损失;社会总福利损益则关键取决于兼并重组后的汽车企业生产成本与运营成本的大幅下降。因此,接下来的兼并重组具体实施策略应该以能降低企业成本为主。
：Based on the random coefficient discrete choice model and China＇s car market aggregate data, this paper ana- lyzes the demand and supply of ear market, and the welfare effect of mergers simulation. The result finds ： ①The resem- ble degree of China＇s car is too high,② Relative to the other discrete choice model, the BLP model can depict accurately the fact that the more resemble, the more substitute, ③After mergers, the profit of mergers automobile enterprises and the other automobile enterprises will rise up, the welfare of consumers will loss greatly, the total welfare will rise or loss relative to the cost of mergers automobile enterprises.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第12期148-157,共10页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(10CJY021)
教育部人文社科规划基金项目(13YJA790004)
