基于系统动力学的飞行员违章行为动态演化仿真研究

Simulation Research on Pilots Violations Evolution Based on System Dynamics

为深入探究飞行员违章行为的动态演化机制及发展规律,在分析飞行员违章行为与其影响因素间的因果关系的基础上,利用系统动力学(SD)原理构建违章行为演化SD模型。用Vensim软件对违章行为动态发展过程进行模拟仿真。结果表明,治理飞行员违章行为是一个分阶段的过程,抑制因素发挥作用具有延迟性和效用期。程序因素和处境意识因素以及与其有关的参数变动对飞行员违章行为演化影响较大。组织应重点关注与以上因素相关的环节或敏感参数。增大安全投入初始值,提高安全培训有效性,能使违章行为活跃水平达到最佳理想状态。组织应在适当时机针对行为演化状况调整管理手段和力度,制定最优策略。

To further explore the dynamic evolution mechanisms and development law of pilot violations, a system dynamics theory-based pilot violations evolution model was built after analyzing the causations of the factors affecting pilot violations. The dynamic development process of pilot violations was simulated using software Vensim. The result show that governance for pilots violations is a process consisting of stages, that there is a delay and an effectiveness period for disincentives to bring effects, that program and situation awareness factors, as well as changes of related parameters influence the evolution of pilot violations largely, that it is important for organizations to focus more on aspects related to above factors and parameters, that active level of violations can reach to an optimum state by increasing safety input and ef- fectiveness of safety training, and that organizations should adjust management efforts against level features based on behavioral condition, and then develop optimal strategies.