面向突发事件衰退期的应急方案决策方法

Method for Making Decision on Response to Emergency in Its Recession Phase

为解决突发事件衰退期的应急方案选择中的不确定问题,提出基于语言信息和排序组织法(PROMETHEE)的应急响应决策方法。首先,引入语言决策理论,确定决策成员的相对重要度和关键指标的权重。然后,使用扩展的加权平均算子,将备选方案的偏好信息与决策成员的相对重要度集结。引入排序组织法,处理不同关键指标与备选方案之间的复杂关系。最后,对各备选方案的净流进行排序,以确定最优方案。以某物流园区火灾后的运营恢复为例,验证该决策方法的有效性和可操作性。结果表明,所提方法能同时兼顾各项关键指标的不同特点,能够有效处理决策过程中的不确定信息。

For the sake of ensuring that a rational decision can be made on response to an emergency in its recession phase, a linguistic information and PROMETHEE based method was worked out for making decisions on response to emergencies. Firstly, the weights of decision makers and attributes were deter- mined by using the theory of linguistic decision making. Secondly, the extended weighted arithmetic aver- age operator was utilized to combine given preference values of alternatives with weights of decision mak- ers. Then the PROMETHEE was used to deal with complex relationship between key attributes and alterna- tives. Finally, the best alternative could be determined based on rankings of alternatives＂ net flows. The recovery of a certain logistics park from a fire was given to demonstrate the feasibility and practicality of the method.