清代后期甘宁青地区人口与耕地变量分析

ANALYSIS ON VARIABLE OF THE POPULATION AND LAND IN THE AREA OF GAN, NING AND QING OF THE LATE QING DYNASTY

古代中国传统的经济模式决定了人口和耕地是构成国力的两大经济因素，它们 的增减升降，一直被视为治乱兴衰的标志。因此，对清代后期甘宁青地区人口与耕地 的变量作对比分析，有助于认识当时这一地区的许多社会问题。文章分三个时期讨 论了清代后期甘宁青人口和耕地变量情况。从而认为：（一）人口和土地是两个互为 依赖又互相制约的因素。在特定的生产力发展水平条件下，人口对土地有一个大致 合理的要求量，如果客观条件所提供的土地小于这个量，就会制约人口的发展。（二） 如果作长期的历史考察，就会发现在旧日的中国，耕地是一个缓变量，增减波动趋势 平缓；人口是一个激变量，波动趋势急剧，波动周期短。（三）人口往往表现为一个社 会问题，它的发展与否，除受土地制约外，又要受到多种社会和政治因素的制约。而 土地主要表现为一个自然环境问题，它的增减变化主要受客观宜农土地状况及社会 人口改造自然能力的制约。

Based on the Chinese traditional economic mode in ancient times, the population and the cultivated land were the two great economic factors making up the national power, the increase and decrease of which had been considered a sign whether the country could achieve order and peace and be kept powerful or not. Therefore through a contrast analysis on the variable of the population and land in the area of Gan, Ning and Qing of the late Qing Dynasty, it is helpful to understand many social problems of this area during that period. This article discusses the variable of the population and land in the area of Gan, Ning and Qing of the late Qing Dynasty from three different periods Thus the conclusion is drawn: (1) The population and land are two factors which are dependent on each other and condition each other. With the productivity development under given conditions, the population needs a reasonable balance with land, otherwise the population growth will be restricted. (2) Through long study of history, it will be found that in old China the increase and decrease of the cultivated land was changed slowly while the variable of the population fluctuated sharply and the cycle of it was short. (3) The population tends to become a social problem for whether it can grow or not will depend on not only land condition but various conditions of society and political factors. However, land is only a problem of natural environment, whether it can increase or decrease is only restricted by the condition of the land how much of which is suitable for farming and the ability of people to remake nature.