合肥基础设施投资与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Relation Between Transport Infrastructure Investment and the Economic Growth Contribution Rate in Hefei

论文依据合肥市1990—2012年时间序列数据,运用生产函数法构造超越对数式C-D生产函数,研究了交通基础设施投资与经济增长的关系。通过对变量的单整检验、协整检验发现数据呈现最佳线性无偏(BLUE)的优良性质,在此基础上,运用OLS方法估算出合肥市交通基础设施投资近似产出弹性为0.01,代表交通基础设施投资变化率发生1%的变动时,由它引起的产出变化率的变化率变动是0.01。并且我们发现滞后三期对经济产出影响最大。结合近似资本边际产出与MPK的相关性,证实合肥市交通基础设施投资对产出有正向贡献。研究认为当前合肥市交通基础设施投资仍不失为重要投资领域,今后要在保持投资力度前提下,充分发挥交通基础设施对合肥市经济增长的正向拉动作用。

Based on time series data of 1990-2012 in Hefei, and the production function method to construct an approximately logarithmic C-D production function, this paper assesses the relation between the economic growth contribution rate and transport infrastructure. After integration test and co-integration test, it has been found all the data are best linear unbiased estimate （ BLUE） . On this basis, the OLS shows the transport infrastructure investment approximate output elasticity is 0. 01 in Hefei, which means When the transportation infrastructure investment rate 1% change occurs, the change rate of output caused by its change rate is 0 . 01 . and three pairs of lagged economic output have the greatest impact. When the approximate marginal product is combined with the MPK, it has been found Hefei transport infrastructure investment has a positive contribution to output. This paper also discusses the policies trend in the future, such as adjusting the investment structure of transport infrastructure, increasing transport infrastructure investment.