低碳视角下粮食主产区农业全要素生产率比较——基于中国13省2002—2011年数据的分析

Comparison of agricultural TFP of the main grain production area in China from low-carbon angle of view: Based on the data of 13 provinces from 2002 to 2011

运用Malmquist生产率指数(M指数)和Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数(ML指数)对中国13个粮食主产区2002—2011年的农业全要素生产率(TFP)进行测算和比较分析,结果显示:13个粮食主产区研究期内ML指数与M指数的变化趋势大体一致;但与考虑碳排放情况的ML指数相比,M指数高估了农业TFP的增长速度,夸大了技术进步和技术效率对农业TFP的贡献作用;由ML指数及其分解可知,中国目前粮食主产区的农业生产方式仍然简单粗放;从技术"创新者"身份来看,产粮大省山东省、处于东部较发达地区的江苏省和位于东北粮食生产基地的辽宁、内蒙古、黑龙江、吉林等省份在实现碳排放约束条件下的农业技术创新方面发挥了重要作用,直接推动着农业环境技术的进步与创新,但中部一些省份,如湖南、湖北、江西、安徽的表现则不理想。

The agricultural TFP of the main grain production area in China from 2002 to 2011 were recalculated by using the approach of Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index （ML index）, and comparisons of the results obtained by the conventional Malmquist index （M index） and ML index were made in this paper. The results showed that, the changing tendency of the ML index was generally consistent with M index, but if comparing the case of carbon emissions, the growth rate of the agricultural TFP was overestimated by the M index, also the contribution of technological progress and technical efficiency were exaggerated by it. From ML index and its decomposition, we found out that the mode of agricultural production in the main grain production area in China was still simple and coarse. View from the angle of technological innovation, the main grain production area in Shangdong, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Jilin played important role in agricultural technological innovation under the condition of low-carbon emission, while some provinces in central region including Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi and Anhui were still not perfect.