基于PSR和改进突变级数法的南京江心洲旅游环境承载力评价

Assessing Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity of Nanjing Jiangxinzhou Based on PSR Model and Modified Catastrophe Progression Method

评估旅游环境承载力并用以指导旅游管理,是区域旅游可持续发展的科学手段之一。目前国内外旅游环境承载力评价手段和方法研究仍有待深入。该文基于压力—状态—响应模型构建旅游环境承载力评价框架,整合熵值法,改进突变级数法,以南京江心洲为例开展实证研究。研究结果表明,2001年—2010年间南京江心洲旅游环境承载力呈波动下降态势。其中2001年—2010年,伴随景区改造升级,旅游环境承载力整体水平小幅上升,后随着旅游环境压力加剧,而管理响应相对滞后,旅游环境承载力水平持续下降,南京江心洲旅游环境可持续承载力受到威胁。其中,建设用地增长过快、污染加剧、景区改造升级缓慢、适游期短为亟待解决的问题。PSR和改进突变级数法相结合,能够有效评估旅游环境承载力发展态势并识别演化趋势和影响机制,评价思路和框架可为类似研究提供方法借鉴。

Study on the assessments of tourism environmental carrying capacity is conducive to an insight into the basic situation of sustainable tourism development. The paper tries to build a tourism carrying capacity assessment system based on Pressure-State-Response( PSR) model,combining catastrophe progression method and entropy weight method to assess tourism environmental carrying capacity. Taking Jiangxinzhou of Nanjing city as a case study,the paper assesses its status of tourism environmental carrying capacity from 2001 to 2010,identifies its evolution trend and influence mechanism,and puts forward the corresponding optimization countermeasures. Assessment results provide a reference framework for the study of tourism islands.