基于不同目标下的耕地流转量预测分析——以山东郓城县为例

Based on the Forecast of the Amount of Cultivated Land Transfer in Purely Economic Goals under Analysis： A Case Study of Yuncheng

本文基于不同目标的角度，分析和推算了郓城县耕地最优经营规模、流转量、流转率。在附加一些假设的条件下，发现耕地可流转量要比目前的流转量大得多，在某种情形下其流转率甚至可达到95．19％，通过对耕地流转的分析，本文揭示了郓城县耕地流转缓慢的根本障碍在于：一是残缺、不完整的耕地产权制度：二是土地流转的绩效不高：三是涉农服务组织功能的不健全；四是农户难以在短期内真正脱离耕地的保障功能和家庭弱势成员的就业功能。

In this paper, based on the point of view of pure economic objectives, analysis and projections Yuncheng farmland optimal scale of operation, turnover volume, turnover rate. In some hypothetical conditions additional arable land negotiable current circulation much larger amount than its turnover rate in some cases even up to 95.19%, through the transfer of farmland theoretical and empirical analysis, this arti- cle reveals the Yuncheng farmland circulation slowly fundamental obstacle is that： First, mutilated, incomplete arable land property rights system; land transfer performance high concentration of land operations did not generate the returns to scale, can not bring significant change of income for farmers, farmers can not make real spun off from the land protection function, but also a variety of uncertainties that exist in the land transfer also hinder the process of the transfer of agricultural land to increase the risk of agricultural operations, engaged in agricultural production, income with unequal risk, namely the lower yielding, higher risk; Third, agriculture-related service organizations function is not perfect; Fourth, the real from the protection of arable land and families vulnerable members of the employment it hard for farmers in the short term.