人民币升值下的行业波动效应:基于我国钢铁行业的实证分析

The Fluctuation Effect of the Industry with the Appreciation of the RMB: Based on the Empirical Analysis of China's Iron and Steel Industry

自2005年汇率改革以来,人民币对美元稳步升值,而人民币币值问题一直是人们关注的热点,因为人民币的币值会影响到我国的贸易状况,资本流动,进而影响到我国的经济发展。中国仍处于工业化和加速城镇化的重要阶段,而钢铁作为最基本的工业食粮在国民经济发展中占有举足轻重的地位。作为重要的工业原料,钢铁被广泛地应用于基建、房地产、汽车、机械和装备制造等诸多领域,因此其发展很大程度上决定了国民经济的增长速度。而随着2012年第一季度钢铁行业陷入了全行业的亏损,钢铁产业预警指数下跌至偏冷的浅蓝灯区。本文结合人民币升值的背景,并从实证的角度探讨汇率改革以来钢铁行业面临的一些问题,并根据结论提出相应的措施。

Since the exchange rate reform from 2005, RMB has appreciated steadily against the dollar, while the value of RMB has been the focus of attention, because the value of RMB will affect Chinese trade status, capital flows, and then affect the country＇s economic development. China is still in an important stage of industrialization and accelerated urbanization, as an important industrial raw materials, the steel plays a decisive role in the national economic development. Steel is widely used in infrastructure, real estate, automobiles, machinery, equipment manufacturing and many other areas, so its development largely determines the growth rate of the national economy. With the first quarter of 2012 the steel industry fell into Industry-wide losses, the steel industry early warning index fell to colder blue light district. This paper combined with the background of RMB appreciation, discussed some problems facing the steel industry since the exchange rate reform from an empirical perspective, and proposed appropriate measures according to conclusions.