贸易与金融双视角下的跨境贸易人民币结算影响因素研究

An Empirical Study on Factors of RMB Settlement in Cross-border Trade from the Dual Perspectives of Trade and Finance

基于国际贸易结算货币选择理论，运用2009～2012年的月度数据从贸易和金融双视角出发，采用协整检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等实证方法对跨境贸易人民币结算的影响因素进行研究。实证得出：其中四个因素对跨境贸易人民币结算职能产生冲击效应，其影响程度从大到小依次为：人均GDP增长率、我国与发达国家贸易占比、我国与东盟贸易额增长率、人民币实际有效汇率波动，且证实汇率波动冲击对跨境贸易人民币结算占比有动态的负向影响。

Based on the settlement currency theory of international trade, this paper investigates main factors of RMB settlement in cross-border trade from the dual perspectives of trade and finance using a co-integration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method with 2009--2012 monthly data to. The result shows that four major factors exert effects of shock on the RMB settlement. These factors are ranked in the decreasing order of the strength of influence, the growth rate of per capita GDP, the proportion of trade with developed countries, the growth rate of trade with ASEAN, the RMB real effective exchange rate volatility. It is verified that exchange rate fluctuation has a negative and dynamic impact on the proportion of RMB settlement in cross-border trade.