中国森林火灾风险统计分析

Statistical Analysis of Forest Fire Risk in China

依据信息扩散理论,从森林火灾次数、受灾范围和致灾程度的角度对1998—2011年中国森林火灾风险进行了统计分析。对森林火灾次数选取一般与较大森林火灾次数、重大森林火灾次数及各自在森林火灾总次数中所占比例三项指标,进行动态趋势和风险概率分析。对受灾范围和致灾程度选取森林火灾损失率、受害率和损受比三个指标观察其动态变化并计算风险概率。研究的主要结论有:重大森林火灾次数和其在总次数中所占比例两指标的波动幅度和频率较为一致;一般和较大森林火灾随着次数的累积,对森林的危害程度也会较大;森林火灾损失率和受害率的值都相对较高时,损受比不一定高;一年中森林火灾损失率、受害率、损受比的值在各自均值以上的概率都约为60%左右。

From the perspective of the number of forest fires, affected range and the extent of the fire hazard, the study assessed the risk of forest fire from 1998 to 2011 of China, based on the information diffusion theory. Three indicators are selected to analyze the dynamic tendency and risk probability, including the number of general and large forest fires, the number of major forest fires and the proportion of the major ones number in the total number. And we selected forest fire loss rate, rate of fire--affected and the ratio of loss and fire--affected rates to make an evaluation of the affected scope and degree of the hazard. The main conclusions are： the fluctuation of the proportion of the major forest fires number in the total number is roughly same to the fluctuation of the major ones. Harm degree of general and large forest fires will be great with the increasing of fire numbers. The ratio of loss and fire--affected rates is not necessarily high when forest fire loss rate and rate of fireaffected are all relatively high, and the probability of the value of the three indicators above their respective average value is all about 60%.