传统产业转型升级的政策变迁及实施效果——中国纺织产业的个案研究

The Policy Changes and the Effects of the Traditional Industry Transformation and Upgrade: A Case Study of China's Textile Industry

从"政策变迁"和"实施效果"两个视角切入,在全面梳理中国纺织产业转型升级已有政策的基础上,基于文本计量分析法从四个维度研究中国纺织产业转型升级政策的历史变迁及主要特征,应用"目标达成"模式并结合模糊优选模型对政策效果进行评价。研究表明:中国纺织产业转型升级政策表现出比较明显的"周期性"、"专用性"、"治理性"和"约束性",而"行业整合"和"产业培育"类政策相对较少,并且指导性和可操作性亟待加强;中国纺织产业转型升级政策颁布的前五年实际效果一般,但是近年来稳步上升;不同政策工具对具体指标的影响程度、实际效果及持续性存在差异。

The article analyses the policy from two angle of ＂policy change＂ and ＂implementation effect＂. On the basis of fully clarifying the existing policy of the transformation and upgrading of textile industry,the paper studies the history change and main features of China＇s textile industry policy about transformation and upgrading from four dimensions using text measurement analysis method, and appraises the effect of policy using ＂target mode＂ combined with ＂fuzzy optimization model＂. The study have found that China＇s textile industry transformation and upgrading policies present obvious ＂ periodicity＂, ＂proprietary＂, ＂governance＂ and ＂binding＂. But the ＂industry consolidation＂ and ＂industry cultivation＂ policy is relatively insufficient, and it is of great importance to strengthen the guidance and maneuverability of policy. The implementation effect of textile industry policy was general in the start five years, but it has risen steadily in recent years. The influence degree, actual effect and persistent of different policy tools to specific indicators is different. Based on the study, the paper proposed policy suggestions to further consummate our country traditional industry transformation and upgrading.