土地供给对通货膨胀的动态影响分析

Analysis on the Dynamic Effects of Land Supply to Inflation

通货膨胀是宏观经济学研究的一个热点问题,而土地供给对通货膨胀的影响又是当前非常现实的问题,特别对于中国这样的发展中国家,该问题的现实意义更为突出。利用AD-AS模型和面板VAR模型,研究土地供给对通货膨胀的动态影响,结果表明:从脉冲响应函数看,在受到土地供给冲击时,通货膨胀在同期没有发生变化,在第一年受到正的影响,但在第二年之后主要受到负的影响,并且累积响应为负;从方差分解看,土地供给对通货膨胀波动的解释程度较小。政府可以通过对土地供给的调控,使中国宏观经济处于"高增长,低膨胀"的平稳状态。

Inflation is a hot issue in macroeconomies research, and now it is a real problem that land supply impact on inflation, especially for China. It is more practical significance and more prominent. So this paper employs the AD--AS model and panel VAR model to analysis the land supply on the dynamic effects of the inflation. The results are that： （1） Judging from the impulse response function, the impact of inflation is no effect during the same period by the land supply shocks, and is positive in the first year, but after the second year, the main impact is negative, and cumulative response is negative; （2） Judging from the variance decomposition, land supply has not big impact on the inflation rate fluctuations. Therefore, China＇s macro economy can keep ＂high growth, low inflation＂ by regulation of the supply of land.