城市群可持续发展水平演化及其影响因素研究——来自中国十大城市群的证据

Analysis on Urban Agglomeration Sustainable Development Level and Influencing Factors: Evidence from China's "Top Ten" Urban Agglomeration

采用基于变异系数的灰色关联分析方法,度量2002-2011年中国十大城市群可持续发展水平并分析其收敛性和影响因素。研究发现:十大城市群在经济发展水平、社会进步程度、生态环境状况、资源供给能力方面呈现显著的差异,城市群可持续发展水平并没有与经济增长的大趋势保持一致;城市群可持续发展水平收敛特征具有分区域特点,全国样本具有非绝对收敛但条件收敛的特征,东部地区城市群绝对收敛特征不显著,但条件收敛特征较明显,而中部与西部城市群具有绝对收敛和条件收敛特征;经济发展水平、社会进步程度等变量与城市群可持续发展水平之间正向相关,但其影响程度在不同区域具有显著差异。

This paper uses the grey correlation analysis method based on the variation coefficient, measured China＇s top ten urban agglomerations sustainable development level and analyze its convergence and influencing factors in 2002--2011. Study found： （1） the top ten urban agglomerations in the level of economic development, social progress, and ecological environment, resources, supply ability show significant differences, the sustainable development of urban agglomeration level is not consistent with the trend of economic growth; （2） features of urban sustainable development level of convergence with regional characteristics, national sample of absolute convergence but conditional convergence characteristics, the eastern part of urban agglomeration of absolute convergence characteristics was not significant, but the conditional convergence characteristic is obvious, and the central and western urban agglomeration has the characteristics of absolute convergence and conditional convergence; （3） the level of economic development, social progress, a positive correlation between variables and the sustainable development level of urban agglomeration, but its influence has significant difference in different areas.