焦作市1951—2010年气候变化特征分析

Characteristics of Climate Change of Jiaozuo City in 1951—2010

根据河南省焦作市1951—2010年的年、季平均气温、蒸发量和降水量气象数据资料,采用水文序列中常用的线性趋势拟合、Kendall秩次相关检验、t检验法和Mann-Kendall突变检验方法,分析研究焦作市近60 a来气候变化特征。结果表明:1951—2010年焦作市年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,在1993年发生突变,四季平均气温持续升高,春、冬两季升温幅度最大;年蒸发量呈显著减少趋势,在1971年发生突变,四季蒸发量呈波动式减少趋势,夏季蒸发量减少幅度最大;年降水量呈不显著减少趋势,分别在1960年和2002年发生两次突变,四季降水量持续减少,夏季降水量减少幅度最大。

Based on the meteorological data including annual and seasonal average atmospheric temperature, evaporation capacity and the amount of precipitation in Jiaozuo City from 1951 to 2010, it used the methods of linear trend fitting, Kendall rank time testing, T testing and Mann-Kendall mutation testing to investigate and analyze the characteristics of climate change. The results show that ： the annual average atmospheric temperature has been observably rising from 1951 to 2010 and mutated in 1993, the seasonal average atmospheric temperature has been rising in the past 60 years with the most large range in spring and autumn;the annual evaporation capacity has been observably decreasing from1951 to 2010 and mutated in 1971 ,the seasonal evaporation has been decreasing in the past 60 years with the most large range in summer;the annual amount of precipitation has been unobservable decreasing from 1951 to 2010 and mutated in 1960 and 2002, the seasonal amount of precipitation has been decreasing in the past 60 years with the most large range in summer.