基于Agent的创新扩散机理研究

Study of the Agent-based Mechanism of Innovation Diffusion

采用基于Agent的建模思想和方法,结合创新扩散的微观机理和复杂网络的特征,研究基于Agent的创新扩散与Bass模型的内在联系,建立基于Agent的创新扩散模型,并通过计算实验,研究网络拓扑结构、内部因素和外部因素影响下的微观创新扩散机理。研究结果表明,当外部因素对创新扩散的影响力远小于内部因素时,无标度网络度分布的异质性最有利于创新的扩散。随着外部因素影响力的增大,创新扩散曲线在无标度网络和小世界网络中的差异逐渐减小。此外,内外部因素影响力的增大都有利于创新的有效扩散。

This paper, by using the theory of agent-based modeling, applies the micro mechanism of innovation diffusion and complex networks to analyze the internal relationship between the agent-based innovation diffusion and Bass model. Then, the agent-based model of innovation diffusion is set up. With the method of computational experiments, it researches how the network topology, the internal and external factors influencing the process of innovation diffusion. The result shows that the heterogeneous degrees distribution of the scale-free network is benefit for the diffusion when the influence from the external factor is far less than from the internal factor. With the increasing influence from the external factor, the diversity of diffusion curves between the scale-free network and small-world network decrease gradually. In addition, the enlargement of the influence from the internal and external factors is in favor of innovation diffusion.