政府规模与经济周期波动——基于公共就业新视角

Government Size and Business Cycle——From a New Perspective of Public Employment

在关于政府规模与经济周期波动关系的研究中,公共收入规模和公共支出规模被关注得颇多,公共就业规模作为衡量政府规模的重要指标之一却少有涉及。然而,公共就业不仅是影响公共收支的重要因素,而且对劳动力市场具有直接和间接作用,因此考察公共就业规模与经济周期波动的关系是对考察政府规模经济稳定效应的必要补充。本文从全国经济周期波动和省份经济周期波动两个层面考察公共就业规模的影响,研究表明,公共就业有利于省份经济稳定,但对全国经济稳定的作用并不显著,这主要在于省份经济周期波动与全国经济周期波动间的差异性以及地方政府机构改革与中央政府机构改革间的时滞性。

Among the researches of relationship between local government size and business cycle, the amount of local public revenue and local public expenditure are always considered as one of the main indicators for local government size, while there is limited literature taking local public employment into account. However, public employment not only affects the public revenue and public expenditure to some extent, but also has important direct and indirect influences on labour market. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of public employment on business cycle. This paper investigates the impact from provincial and national view respectively. The result shows that public employment is advantageous to provin- cial economic stability while it has no significant positive impact on national economic stability. There are mainly two rea- sons, one of which is the difference between the provincial and the national business cycle, the other of which is the lag be- tween the organizational reform in local government and central government