市场需求对重工业投资影响的非对称性诱导效应研究

Asymmetric Induced Effects of Market Demand to Investment in Heavy Industry

本文基于经济高速增长环境下,巨大经济体市场需求对投资进入与退出非对称性诱导的理论预期,选用2003以来我国重工业各行业市场与投资的季度数据,运用固定效应变系数面板模型实证检验发现,各行业市场需求对投资诱导效应存在着显著的行业差异性;进一步运用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数分析国内外需求对投资影响的非对称效应时发现,国内需求是影响投资的主要原因,各行业市场需求的大幅增长诱发了显著的投资增长惯性,且需求增长对投资进入的拉动作用要明显强于需求缩减对投资退出的抑制作用。这种非对称的投资诱导机制决定了中国重工业行业投资的高速增长及巨大产能存量,本轮多个重工业行业的产能过剩正是这种诱导机制在需求缩减时的直接结果。

Based on the expectations of the theory of huge economies market demand inducing investment entry and exit asymmetrically with rapid economic growth environment,using a fixed effects panel model with variable coefficients with the Chinese heavy industries market and investment quarterly data from 2003 till now,we find through empirical test that there are significant inter-industry differences in market demand inducing investment effects. Further studies of the asymmetrical effect of the demand internal and external to investment using the VAR model and impulse response function show that,domestic demand is the main reason affecting investment,and substantial growth of market demand for various industries induced a significant increase inertia in investment. Demand growth stimulating effect on investment increasing is significantly stronger than the inhibition effect on investment decreasing of demand reduction. The mechanism of asymmetric investment induction determine the rapid growth of investment and huge stock of production capacity in Chinese heavy industry. The current round of production overcapacity in many heavy industries is the visual expression of the inducing mechanism under the conditions of demand reducing.