媒体舆论、公众预期与通货膨胀

Media Sentiments,Consumers' Expectations,and Inflation in China

本文首次从媒体舆论视角考察公众预期形成机制及其对通货膨胀的影响。文章根据发行量排名、影响力和覆盖范围选取媒体库并计算相关媒体报道的量化指标，通过调查数据获得现实中公众对未来的通胀预期，进而检验媒体舆论是否对公众预期通胀率具有显著影响。文章还进一步构建了用以捕捉媒体舆论、公众预期和现实通胀率的动态模型系统，用以考察三者的动态互动机制。研究结果表明，媒体舆论显著驱动公众预期，单份报刊每增加1篇关于物价上涨的相关报道，公众预期通胀率会上升0．1—0．15％，而且我国公众的通胀预期粘性程度较高。另外，媒体舆论与公众预期以及公众预期与现实通胀率分别具有显著的双向互动关系。因此，正确引导媒体舆论、减少负面情绪报道、深化新闻媒体“走转改”活动对于稳定国内通胀预期进而平抑通货膨胀具有重大意义。

This paper investigates the relationship among media coverage, consumers＇ expectations and inflation in China. We count the volumes of relevant reports in Genius Finance database, Reference News, and People＇s Daily which provide an extensive media coverage in China. In addition, we convert consumers＇ price survey data published by the People＇s Bank of China into consumers＇ inflation expectations via statistic difference method. The media coverage data and inflation expectations series are then used to examine whether media coverage sig- nificantly drives consumers＇ expectations. The paper also investigates the relationship between consumers＇ ex- pectations and actual inflation in China by developing and estimating an extended inflation dynamics model with micro - foundations. The empirical results show that media coverage significantly drives consumers＇ inflation ex- pectations, and consumers＇ expectations exert significant pressure on actual inflation in China. Our findings provide important implications for policy - makers in China.