人口老龄化对中国高储蓄的影响

The Impact of Population Aging on China's High Savings Rate

本文基于中国高储蓄形成的历史原因和人口老龄化对储蓄率影响的国际经验,预测并分析了未来20年人口老龄化对中国国民储蓄率的影响。研究发现,在未来,人口老龄化虽然是拉低中国国民储蓄率的最主要因素,但尚不足以彻底改变中国的高储蓄特征。究其原因,人口年龄结构的变化相对于一般经济变量来说是比较缓慢的;其作用的发挥需要较长一段时间的积累;人均收入水平的快速提高会对人口老龄化的影响产生明显的抵消效应;国民储蓄率在当前已经处于超高水平,即使大幅下滑近25个百分点,仍然在世界范围内处于高水平。

This paper predicts and analyzes the impact of population aging on China＇s national savings rate for the next 20 years, based on the historical reasons for the formation of China＇s high savings rate and international exPerience. The results show that population aging will be the major force that lowers national savings rate in the future, but it is still insufficient to completely alter China＇s high savings rate. The reasons are： the age composi- tion of population changes slowly compared to common economic variables, and requires longer time to take effect; the rapid increase in per capita income will significantly offset the impact of population aging; China＇s national savings rate has now been at such a high level that even if there is a sharp drop of about 25 percentage points, it will still remain high.