业绩预测历史准确度的声誉效应

The Reputation Effect of Prior Management Forecast Accuracy

本文考察管理层业绩预测历史准确度的声誉效应。研究显示,历史准确度越高的管理层所发布的业绩预测能够引发更强烈的股价变动;进一步分析显示,这一现象在信息不确定的情况下,即当公司治理水平低、公司未来成长性高及当前预测为区间估计时,更为显著。本文的研究结果表明,提高业绩预测的准确度有助于管理层建立良好的预测声誉,提高管理层预测的可信度,从而加强上市公司与资本市场之间的信息沟通。

This paper investigates the reputation impact of prior management forecast accuracy. We find that the market reaction to current management forecasts increase with mangers＇ prior forecast accuracy. Furthermore, we find that this relationship is more pronounced in situations with greater information uncertainty, that is when corporate governance is not efficient, when growth opportunity is high and when current management forecast is a range estimate. The results suggest that prior forecast accuracy helps to improve managers＇ credibility in earn- ings forecasts and thus build up their reputation in this aspect, which is able to enhance the efficiency of infor- mation flow between public companies and capital market.