基于碳减排贡献原则的绿色气候基金分配研究

The Study on the Green Climate Fund Allocation based on the Principle of Carbon Reduction Contribution

本文讨论了"后京都"时代绿色气候基金(GCF)如何在发展中国家间分配的问题,提出一种基于碳减排贡献原则的分配方案,在此方案下一国的减排贡献越大其所能获得的资金也将越多。研究采用环境版全球贸易分析模型(GTAP-E)定量分析了GCF分配方案对各国的经济环境影响。结果发现,基于减排贡献的分配原则,所有发展中国家均能获得一定额度的减排基金和适应基金,并且在政策实施初期100亿美元和1 000亿美元的GCF能够促使发展中国家分别减排14.7亿tCO2和31.8亿tCO2。GCF分配方案对各国居民福利的影响依赖于绿色基金融资额度,只有当GCF达到一定融资水平时,才会出现所有发展中国家居民福利均改善的情况。总的看来,基于减排贡献原则的GCF分配方案,不仅能为发展中国家募集一定的适应基金,也能取得较为明显的减排效果,是对"后京都"时代全球气候变化适应和温室气体减排的一种兼顾。

This paper discusses how to allocate the Green Climate Fund （GCF） among developing countries in the ＂post-Kyoto＂ era. First, the scheme based on the principle of carbon reduction contribution is introduced, and under the principle, the country with larger mitigation will be rewarded by receiving more funds. Then, a quantitative evaluation is given with the energy version of global trade analysis model （GTAP-E）. The results indicate that all developing countries are able to get some adaptation fund and mitigation fund, and the initial stage of US $ 10 billion and US $ 100 billion of the GCF could encourage developing countries to reduce their emissions by 1.47 GtCO2 and 3.18 GtCO2 , respectively. The regional welfare effects of the GCF allocation are closely related to the finance levels, and in all developing countries welfare will be improved when the GCF is large enough. The scheme proposed in the paper not only raises some adaptation fund for developing countries, but also achieves mitigation effects obviously, thus it is a combination of climate mitigation and climate adaptation.