中国煤炭消费需求波动规律及成因分析

The Fluctuation Pattern of Chinese Coal Consumption Demand and Cause Analysis

把握中国煤炭消费需求波动规律,对我国煤炭产业链供需安全和应急具有重要意义。文章依据波动理论,首先利用趋势回归方程拟合年度尺度的中国煤炭消费需求整体变化趋势,发现与幂函数曲线增长的特点相似,并通过BP滤波对1953-2012年的煤炭消费需求波动曲线的变化特征做了进一步分析,得出波动周期平均在3-6年左右;随后利用季节调整手段对2008年1月至2013年5月的煤炭消费需求数据进行分析,发现月度尺度的短期波动周期在3-5月之间。进而利用回归方法,结合波动变化规律曲线,对引起中国煤炭消费需求波动的关键因素进行具体分析,认为中国煤炭消费需求的长期波动规律主要受到社会经济增长、宏观政策等因素的影响,短期变化规律主要受到电力等高耗能行业及其他因素的影响。

To grasp the fluctuation pattern of Chinese coal consumption demand has significant meaning on China＇ s coal supply chain security and emergency mechanism. Based on wave theory, firstly use the trend regression equation to fitting the overall change trend of the China＇ s coal consumption demand in this article, we found that it＇ s similar to the characteristics of exponential growth curve; and the further analyze of the characteristics of coal consumption demand fluctuation curve between the year of 1953 -2012 by using the BP filter shows that its＇ average wave cycle is around in 3 -6 years; secondly, by using the seasonally adjust method, the analyze of the coal consumption demand data from Jan. 2008 to May. 2013 found that the short-term fluctuation of monthly scale is around 3 - 5 month. Then, by using regression methods, combined with volatility variation curve to specific analysis the key factors of the causing of fluctuations in China＇ s coal consumption demand, we believe the long-term fluctuations of Chinese coal consumption demand is mainly affected by social-economic growth, macroeconomic policy and other relevant factors, while the short-term variation is mainly affected by high energy-consuming industries and other relevant factors.