山东省工业结构演变的大气环境效应研究

Atmospheric Environment Effect of Industrial Structure Evolution in Shandong Province

本文以LMDI分解方法研究山东省1991-2011年工业经济增长的环境规模效应、结构效应、技术效应的变化特征,测度污染密集型产业结构变动带来的大气环境效应。研究发现:①山东省SO2、烟尘、粉尘等大气污染物排放状况总体趋势改善,但污染物排放的产业集聚性特征明显,其中污染密集型产业增加值占工业总增加值的25-45%,而其大气污染物排放量占总排放量的90%以上;②规模效应是造成大气污染物排放总量增加的主要原因,技术效应是控制大气污染物排放量的主要因素,结构效应对大气污染物减排效果并不明显,因此调整工业结构特别是减少污染密集型产业比重是污染物减排的重要途径;③1991-2011年山东省污染密集型产业比重上升或下降1个百分点,工业废气、SO2、烟尘和粉尘排放量将分别增加或减少19.13百亿标m3、5.68万t、2.25万t、3.70万t。依据上述研究结论,需要从大气污染物综合排放标准、区域大气环境管理、环境管理政策、科技支撑体系等方面优化产业结构,推动区域经济与环境的协调发展,应对当前的大气环境问题。

This paper used LMDI decomposition method to research the variation characteristics of scale effect and structure effect and technology effect of industrial economic growth, and analyzed environmental effects brought by the change of pollution intensive industry structure from 1991 to 2011 in Shandong Province. It drew the following conclusions： （1）The emission situation of SO2 , smoke, dust and other air pollutants trends has been improved, the emission of exhaust gas continues to grow, and the industry agglomeration characteristics of pollution is significant. The increased value of pollution intensive industries accounts for 25% - 45% of the total increased value of industries and the emissions amount of atmospheric pollutants is more than 90% of total emissions. （2）The scale effect is the main cause of pollutant total amount increase; technology effect is the major factor to control emissions, and the structure effect has no obvious impact on the pollutants emission reduction. So the adjustment of industrial structure especially reducing the pollution intensive industries is the main way of pollutants emission reduction. （3）Pollutants emission reduction effect of industrial structure adjustment shows that if the proportion of pollution intensive industries rises or falls 1% , industrial waste gas, SO2 , smoke and dust emissions will increase or decrease respectively 19. 13 billion m3 , 56. 8 thousand tons, 22.5 thousand tons, and 37.0 thousand tons. Based on the above research conclusions, from the aspects of integrating emission standard of atmospheric pollutants, regional atmospheric environment management, environmental management policy, and support of science and technology system, optimize the industrial structure and promote the coordination betwween development of regional economy and environment, in order to reply atmospheric environment alproblems at present.