人民币均衡汇率的测算研究

The Estimation of RMB'S Equilibrium Exchange Rates

本文通过创新性地将国际货币基金组织(IMF)和美国皮特森国际经济研究所两大均衡汇率研究机构的方法进行了整合,并基于各国之间的贸易往来数据和汇率对经常账户差额的弹性,用更为客观的方法测算出未来人民币均衡汇率水平及其与主要贸易伙伴国货币之间的双边汇率。研究结果有效弥补了国内在这一研究领域的空白,具有较高的学术价值;同时,依据该方法测算得到的结果,能够较好地服务于人民币汇率政策的决策实践,有助于提高汇率政策的前瞻性、科学性、有效性和针对性,因而也具有较高的实际应用价值。

This paper creatively combines the macro-economic balance approach of IMF and the trade matrix approach of Peterson Institute for international Economics to develop a new method of estimating equilibrium exchange rates which is based on trading volumes and elasticity of exchange rates to current account balances.This new method intends to estimate more objectively the equilibrium exchange rates between RMB and the currencies of China's main trading partners.It has practical values as it is helpful to make China's foreign exchange rate policy more forward-looking,scientific and effective.