经济结构失衡背景下的中国经济增长质量

Quality of Economic Growth of China under the Background of Imbalanced Economic Structure

将客观因子分析法与主观打分法相结合，测度1978~2010年中国经济结构和各要素之间的失衡程度，运用结构方程模型分析产业结构、投资消费结构、金融结构、区域经济结构与国际收支结构的失衡对于经济增长质量的影响。结果表明，中国经济结构整体失衡水平呈U形变化趋势，五大结构的失衡水平不断恶化。产业结构、投资消费结构、金融结构的失衡程度对经济增长质量产生负效应，区域经济结构与国际收支结构对于经济增长质量产生正效应。在未来发展中，应通过产业结构与投资消费结构、金融结构、区域经济结构、国际收支结构的协调、有序、均衡调整，实现经济增长质量的稳定和可持续发展。

Based on the objective factor analysis and subjective scoring method, this paper measures the imbalance extent of Chinese economic structure and elements in 1978~2010, using Structural Equation Modeling method, analysis the impact of imbalance of industrial structure, investment and consumption structure, financial structure, regional economic structure and balance of payments structure on the quality of economic growth. Results show that, Chinese economic structure imbalance overall level presents U-shaped trend, the imbalance of five major structural elements is deteriorating. The imbalance of Industrial structure, investment and consumption structure, financial structure produce a negative effect on the quality of economic growth.