气温变化对朝阳市用水量的影响分析

Impacts of Tempreture Changes on Water Consumpution in Chaoyang City

利用朝阳市1980―2011年月均温、年均温和逐年工业、农业、生活用水量资料,运用距平、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall轶次相关法、回归分析法分析了气温和用水量的变化过程,初步研究了两者之间的相关性。结果表明:1980—2011年朝阳市气温呈上升趋势,并在1988年发生了由低温向高温的突变;工业、生活用水量变化相对较小,农业用水量、总用水量随时间呈显著的线性增加趋势;农业、生活用水量与年均温之间呈正相关,相关系数分别为0.429和0.331;农业用水量与2、8、9、10月均温之间具有正相关关系。

Based on the average monthly and annual temperature and consumption of industrial water,agricul- tural water and domestic water in Chaoyang from 1980 to 2011,the changes of temperature and water con- sumption and their relationship were analyzed by anomaly analysis, moving average, Mann-Kendall rank corre- lation test and regression analysis.The conclusions are as follows：the temperature increased during 1980- 2011 ,and the temperature abrupt change from low to high occurred in 1988;the changes of industrial and do- mestic water consumption were slight while the agricultural water consumption showed significantly linear in- creasing trend,so as to the total water consumption ;the correlations between agricultural and domestic water consumption and average annual temperature were positive ,and the correlation coefficients were 0.429 and 0.331 respectively ;moreover, agricultural water consumption had positive correlations with the average monthly temperature of February, August, September, and October.